Pakubweranso kwake kuchokera kutsika kwa 2020, mtengo wa Brent udakopana ndi $ 70 / bbl. Mitengo yokwera mu 2021 imatanthawuza kukwera kwa ndalama kwa opanga, mwinanso ngakhale kukweza zolemba. M'malo awa, upangiri wazachilengedwe padziko lonse lapansi Wood Mackenzie anati ogwira ntchito akuyenera kusamala.

"Ngakhale mitengo yopitilira $ 60 / bbl nthawi zonse izikhala yabwinoko kwa ogwiritsa ntchito kuposa $ 40 / bbl, siulendo wonse wopita," adatero Greig Aitken, Wotsogolera ndi gulu lowunikira m'makampani a WoodMac. “Pali mavuto osatha okhudza kukwera kwamitengo ndi kusokonekera kwachuma. Kuphatikiza apo, kusintha kwa zinthu kumapangitsa kuti magwiridwe antchito akhale ovuta, makamaka popeza zimachitika. Ndipo pali zovuta zomwe zimabwera posachedwa, pomwe omwe akutenga nawo mbali amayamba kuwona maphunziro ophunzitsidwa ngati malingaliro achikale. Izi nthawi zambiri zimabweretsa ndalama zochulukirapo komanso kusachita bwino. ”

Ait Aitken adati ogwira ntchito akuyenera kukhalabe osamala. Mapulani opambana pa $ 40 / bbl akadali mapulani opambana mitengo ikakwera, koma pali zinthu zingapo zomwe ogwiritsa ntchito ayenera kukumbukira. Choyamba, kutsika kwa mitengo yamagetsi sikungapeweke. Wood Mackenzie adati magulitsidwe atsegulidwa, ndipo ntchito zothamanga zitha kulimbikitsa misika mwachangu zomwe zimapangitsa kuti mitengo ikwere mwachangu.

Kachiwiri, ndalama zachuma zitha kukulirakulira. Kukwera kwamitengo yamafuta ndichomwe chimayambitsa kusokonekera kwachuma. Ndalama zingapo zandalama zikuyenda bwino ndipo zakhazikitsidwa kuti zikweze gawo la boma pamitengo yokwera zokha, koma zambiri sizichita.

"Zofuna kuti 'gawo labwino' likwere kwambiri pamitengo yokwera, ndipo kulimbitsa mitengoyo sikungadziwike," adatero Aitken. "Ngakhale makampani amafuta akukana kusintha kwa ndalama ndikuwopseza kuti azichepetsa ndalama ndikuchepetsa ntchito, izi zitha kufooka chifukwa chofuna kuthana kapena kukolola chuma mdera lina. Mitengo yayikulu, misonkho yatsopano yopindulitsa, ngakhale misonkho ya kaboni imatha kuyembekezera. ”

Kukwera mitengo kungayambitsenso kukonzanso mbiri. Ngakhale zinthu zambiri zikugulitsidwa, ngakhale mdziko la $ 60 / bbl, ogula akadakhalabe ochepa. Ait Aitken adati njira zothetsera kusowa kwa ndalama sizikusintha. Ogulitsa omwe angakhale nawo atha kuvomereza mtengo wamsika, kugulitsa katundu wabwino, kuphatikiza zadzidzidzi pamgwirizanowu, kapena kugwiritsabe.

"Kukwera kwamafuta kwambiri, kumalimbikitsanso kwambiri kusunga chuma," adatero. “Kutenga mitengo yomwe ikupezeka pamsika kunali kosavuta kusankha ngati mitengo ndi chidaliro zikuchepa. Zimakhala zovuta kugulitsa katundu pamtengo wotsika pamtengo wokwera. Katunduyu akupanga ndalama ndipo ogwira ntchito sakukakamizidwa kugulitsa chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa ndalama komanso kusinthasintha. ”

Komabe, malo okhala ndi maudindo apamwamba ndiofunikira. A Aitken adati: "Zikhala zovuta kuti tigwire mzere pamitengo yokwera. Makampani amalankhula zambiri zakulanga, kuyang'ana kuchepa kwa ngongole komanso kuchuluka kwa omwe akugawana nawo. Izi ndizosavuta kupanga ngati mafuta ali $ 50 / bbl. Kutsimikiza uku kudzayesedwa ndikuwonjezeka kwamitengo yamagawo, kukulitsa ndalama ndikupangitsanso chidwi pagawo la mafuta ndi gasi. ”

Ngati mitengo ingapitirire $ 60 / bbl, ma IOC ambiri amatha kubwerera kumalo awo azachuma mwachangu kuposa momwe mitengo ilili $ 50 / bbl. Izi zimapereka mwayi wochulukirapo pakupanga mphamvu zatsopano kapena kutulutsa mphamvu. Koma izi zitha kugwiritsidwanso ntchito pakubwezeretsanso chitukuko chakumtunda.

Oima pawokha atha kuwona kukula kubwerera mwachangu kuzinthu zawo: ambiri odziyimira pawokha ku US ali ndi zovuta zodzibwezeretsanso zomwe zimapumira 70-80% yachuma. Kugwiritsa ntchito ntchito ndiye cholinga chachikulu chamakampani ambiri omwe ali ndi ngongole ku US, koma Aitken adati izi zikupatsabe mpata wakukula kwakukula kwakanthawi kachuma. Kuphatikiza apo, ndi mayiko ochepa odziyimira pawokha omwe apanga malonjezo ofanana ndi akuluakulu. Alibe chifukwa chotere chosinthira kutuluka kwa mafuta ndi gasi.

“Kodi gululi lingatengeredwe kachiwiri? Pang'ono ndi pang'ono, kuyang'ana pakukhazikika kungapereke mwayi wokambirana zamitengo. Msika ukadayambanso kukula kopindulitsa, ndizotheka. Zitha kutenga ndalama zochuluka kwambiri kuti zitheke, koma gawo lamafuta lakhala ndi mdani woipitsitsa, "adatero Aitken.